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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

一 |     在新加坡我们经常会看到排队的人龙，大家都很遵守规则，一切井然有序。但是如果正好有事没办法在现场排队，你会怎么做呢？8月23日，碧山东居民委员会举办了免费分发食物的活动，有不少人用石头和塑料袋等物品来占位排队，引发了网友的讨论。图源：Facebook 事情发生在碧山12街第112座组屋楼下，人们用物品代替自己排队等待免费发放的食物，其中有纸巾、石头和塑料袋等。    WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。当晚，粮食救援计划的组织者居民网络在Facebook上感谢居民的鼎力支持。图源：Facebook居民网络于2021年11月启动了“Harvest in Harmony”食物救援计划，这是“实现零食物浪费”可持续发展项目的一部分，这个项目将志愿者收集的不需要的食物重新分配给居民。他们表示：“我们感谢早起的人们在保持秩序和睦相处的情况下排队等待补货。”然而，组织者碧山东一区居民网络强调“只接受真人排队”，他们分享了一张照片，照片中队伍里排着一排物品，大部分是用石头压住的塑料袋。“严禁使用物品进行占位排队。

二 | ”图源：Facebook 他们补充说，地板上的所有物品都被视为垃圾，将被清理或没收。

三 | “我们寻求您的理解和合作，以维持所有人都能享受愉快、和谐的领取食品的体验。”这样的占位方式，对于生活在新加坡的我们来说其实并不陌生了，但是每次看到还是会被大家的脑洞惊到……一起来看看新加坡人都会用哪些东西占位吧。

四 | 01纸巾在新加坡，小包的纸巾是占座的首选物品，由于这种方法的有效性和纸巾的轻巧便携，以及易于识别的性质，被人们广泛应用。图源：Seedly 02雨伞在新加坡，雨伞的作用不仅仅是遮风挡雨，它们还能用来占座。

五 | 这种方法有时比纸巾更奏效，因为雨伞更坚固，更不容易被风吹走或被别人拿走。图源：The Straits Times 03员工卡在新加坡，使用员工卡占座是一种常见的做法。因为新加坡很安全，不必担心个人物品被盗。04眼镜眼镜可以看做是餐桌上的“筷子”，这是一种奇特而有效的纸巾替代品。虽然你可能忘记带纸巾，但你不太可能忘记戴眼镜。不过话说回来，眼镜用来占座了，点餐的时候看得清吗？05包包使用包包来占座也是一个聪明的策略，因为它们更大，更不容易被无视。这种方法可能比纸巾更有效，因为包包不容易被转移，确保可以占住想要的座位。图源：Pinkoi 06名片如果你刚刚带着一叠名片从某个社交活动中离开，你可能会毫不犹豫地抽出一张来占座。虽然在流行的占座用品中不太常见，但有些人更喜欢使用这种一次性的物品。图源：Stomp 07水瓶这种方法不仅独特，而且比纸巾更有效。水瓶不太可能被意外移动，确保你的座位是安全的，就像包包在占位时的作用一样。图源：Explore08报纸不出意外的话，用报纸占位的，一定是一位新加坡安哥吧！大家还见过什么奇奇怪怪的占座方式呢？。

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